Chojniczanka Chojnice 1–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Chojniczanka Chojnice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

11/3/2024

II Liga - East · Round 16Stadion Miejski Chojnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice54%

×Draw24%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chojniczanka ChojniceExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.02

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.73

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.02

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 70% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 33 away

1.91

creates per match

1.06

0.99

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.91

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.06

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice

0.99

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw

78%

Chojniczanka Chojnice or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

76%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

46%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+

30%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals

82%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals

52%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals

25%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

64%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

27%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)

71%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.91 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.73

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more

54%

level

24%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

22%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff