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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Chojniczanka Chojnice — I Liga 2018

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
10/26/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 15Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec44%
×Draw26%
Chojniczanka Chojnice30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.48
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.19

Zaglebie Sosnowiec creates 24% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 48 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.16
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.00

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.39
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.79

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
70%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Chojniczanka Chojnice
74%
Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice
56%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
21%
Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
77%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
43%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
19%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
70%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
33%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
59%
Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.00 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
44%
level
26%
Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
30%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3–3 Chojniczanka Chojnice

Zaglebie Sosnowiec and Chojniczanka Chojnice drew 3-3 in I Liga on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.