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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Arka Gdynia — I Liga 2018

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia
11/12/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 15ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec29%
×Draw26%
Arka Gdynia46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.14
Arka Gdynia
1.52

Arka Gdynia creates 33% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 85 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.16
Arka Gdynia
1.65

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.39
Arka Gdynia
1.12

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Arka Gdynia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Arka Gdynia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
54%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Arka Gdynia
74%
Draw or Arka Gdynia
71%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
11%
Arka Gdynia wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
68%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
32%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
11%
Arka Gdynia 1+ goals
78%
Arka Gdynia 2+ goals
45%
Arka Gdynia 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
38%
Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Arka Gdynia away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Arka Gdynia attack 1.65 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
29%
level
26%
Arka Gdynia scores more
46%

Arka Gdynia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–3 Arka Gdynia

Arka Gdynia beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3-1 in I Liga on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at ArcelorMittal Park in Sosnowiec.