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Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — I Liga 2018

Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
5/12/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 32Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Arka Gdynia52%
×Draw25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arka Gdynia
1.57
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.95

Arka Gdynia creates 65% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 85 away

creates per match

Arka Gdynia
1.67
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.94

allows per match

Arka Gdynia
0.97
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.48

finishing

Arka Gdynia+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw
77%
Arka Gdynia or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
75%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
48%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+
27%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals
79%
Arka Gdynia 2+ goals
46%
Arka Gdynia 3+ goals
21%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
61%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)
69%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.97 · 89 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.67 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.57

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.94 + Arka Gdynia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more
52%
level
25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
23%

Arka Gdynia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Arka Gdynia 1–0 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Arka Gdynia beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1-0 in I Liga on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Gdynia.