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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Arka Gdynia — Ekstraklasa 2026

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia
S. Pawłowski 85', 60'
Ž. Udovičić 38'
D. Zbozień 45+1' (pen), 9'
2/16/2019EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 22Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec43%
×Draw22%
Arka Gdynia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.85
Arka Gdynia
1.62

Zaglebie Sosnowiec creates 14% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 55 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.89
Arka Gdynia
0.91

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.33
Arka Gdynia
1.82

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Arka Gdynia+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Arka Gdynia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
66%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Arka Gdynia
78%
Draw or Arka Gdynia
57%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
23%
Arka Gdynia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
84%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
55%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
28%
Arka Gdynia 1+ goals
80%
Arka Gdynia 2+ goals
48%
Arka Gdynia 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
56%
Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

Arka Gdynia away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.89 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.85

Arka Gdynia attack 0.91 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
43%
level
22%
Arka Gdynia scores more
34%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
D. Zbozień↳ M. Jankowski
30'
Luka Zarandia
31'
Frederik Helstrup
36'
Rafał Siemaszko
38'
Ž. Udovičić
45+1'
D. ZbozieńPenalty
60'
S. Pawłowski
68'
N. Aankour← M. Banaszewski
78'
J. Łoś← R. Siemaszko
83'
S. Milewski← L. Greššák
83'
O. Nowak← G. Gabedava
85'
S. Pawłowski↳ S. Milewski
88'
M. Olczyk← L. Marić
90+2'
D. Ryndak← G. Migas

Possession

49%Zaglebie

Shots

13Zaglebie

Statistics

ZaglebieArka
Overview
49%Possession51%
13Total Shots4
10Corners7
17Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots4
9On Target2
4Off Target2
Passing
49%Possession51%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
17Fouls16
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Arka Gdynia

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Arka Gdynia 3-2 in Ekstraklasa on February 16, 2019.

Goals: D. Zbozień (9', 45+1' pen), Ž. Udovičić (38'), S. Pawłowski (60', 85').

Arka Gdynia controlled possession (51%) and registered 4 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.