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Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice — Ekstraklasa 2018

Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
8/18/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 5Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zaglebie Lubin51%
×Draw25%
Puszcza Niepołomice24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Lubin
1.60
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00

Zaglebie Lubin creates 60% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 34 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Lubin
1.39
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.76

allows per match

Zaglebie Lubin
1.25
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.82

finishing

Zaglebie Lubin+0.00on par
Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Lubin ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zaglebie Lubin or draw
76%
Zaglebie Lubin or Puszcza Niepołomice
75%
Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice
49%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+
27%
Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals
80%
Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals
47%
Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals
22%
Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
63%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
26%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)
68%
Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Lubin at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 137 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.39 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.76 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zaglebie Lubin scores more
51%
level
25%
Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
24%

Zaglebie Lubin at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zaglebie Lubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice

Zaglebie Lubin beat Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Lubin.