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Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin — Ekstraklasa 2018

Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin
2/25/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 22Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice42%
×Draw25%
Zaglebie Lubin33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.51
Zaglebie Lubin
1.33

Puszcza Niepołomice creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 137 away

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.47
Zaglebie Lubin
1.20

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.47
Zaglebie Lubin
1.55

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par
Zaglebie Lubin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Zaglebie Lubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw
67%
Puszcza Niepołomice or Zaglebie Lubin
75%
Draw or Zaglebie Lubin
58%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
20%
Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
78%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
44%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
19%
Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals
74%
Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals
38%
Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
55%
Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Zaglebie Lubin away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.55 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.47 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.51

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.20 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
42%
level
25%
Zaglebie Lubin scores more
33%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin

Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin drew 2-2 in Ekstraklasa on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Kraków.