Zaglebie Lubin 0–1 Piast Gliwice: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Lubin

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Piast Gliwice

M. Rosołek 8'

3/1/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 23Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Zaglebie Lubin42%

×Draw26%

Piast Gliwice32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie LubinExpected goals in this matchPiast Gliwice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.23

Zaglebie Lubin

1.46

Piast Gliwice

1.23

Zaglebie Lubin creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.23

creates per match

1.12

1.33

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.23

Piast Gliwice

1.12

allows per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.33

Piast Gliwice

1.70

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Zaglebie Lubin-0.43scores less

Piast Gliwice+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Lubin ↓

Piast Gliwice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Zaglebie Lubin or draw

68%

Zaglebie Lubin or Piast Gliwice

74%

Draw or Piast Gliwice

58%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+

20%

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals

77%

Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals

43%

Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals

18%

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals

71%

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

35%

Piast Gliwice 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)

57%

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Lubin at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.70 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.23 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Piast Gliwice attack 1.12 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zaglebie Lubin scores more

42%

level

26%

Piast Gliwice scores more

32%

Zaglebie Lubin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zaglebie Lubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Dąbrowski

Zaglebie Lubin · M

7.7

Match Events

8'

M. Rosołek

46'

A. Woźniak← K. Szmyt

46'

J. Jach← D. Michalski

46'

A. Radwański← M. Mróz

69'

Akim Zedadka

69'

Jorge Félix← M. Chrapek

76'

J. Ćorluka← B. Kłudka

80'

D. Mikołajewski← J. Kolan

88'

G. Tomasiewicz← M. Szczepański

90+4'

Damian Dąbrowski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZaglebiePiast

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots11

7Corners1

17Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots11

4On Target3

8Off Target6

2Blocked2

9Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

505Total Passes433

363Accurate Passes304

72%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1