Piast Gliwice 1–0 Zaglebie Lubin: Result & Stats

Piast Gliwice

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zaglebie Lubin

D. Kądzior 45'

8/24/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 6Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Piast Gliwice46%

×Draw26%

Zaglebie Lubin28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Piast GliwiceExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Lubin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.09

Piast Gliwice

1.46

Zaglebie Lubin

1.09

Piast Gliwice creates 34% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 19 away

1.29

creates per match

1.14

1.04

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Piast Gliwice

1.29

Zaglebie Lubin

1.14

allows per match

Piast Gliwice

1.04

Zaglebie Lubin

1.62

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Piast Gliwice-0.37scores less

Zaglebie Lubin-0.35scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Gliwice ↓

Zaglebie Lubin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Piast Gliwice or draw

72%

Piast Gliwice or Zaglebie Lubin

74%

Draw or Zaglebie Lubin

54%

Winning margin

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+

22%

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals

77%

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

43%

Piast Gliwice 3+ goals

18%

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals

66%

Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals

30%

Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)

62%

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Gliwice at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Zaglebie Lubin away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Gliwice attack 1.29 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.14 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Piast Gliwice scores more

46%

level

26%

Zaglebie Lubin scores more

28%

Piast Gliwice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

F. Plach

Piast Gliwice · G

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Mateusz Wdowiak

15'

Marek Mróz

29'

T. Mokwa← I. Drapiński

41'

Jakub Czerwiński

45'

D. Kądzior↳ M. Rosołek

46'

A. Radwański← M. Mróz

68'

K. Szmyt← M. Wdowiak

69'

T. Kostadinov← M. Chrapek

72'

M. Szczepański← M. Rosołek

76'

D. Kurminowski← T. Makowski

76'

P. Kusztal← T. Pieńko

85'

B. Kopacz← Luís Mata

90+6'

Tihomir Kostadinov

90+3'

Patryk Dziczek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PiastZaglebie

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots13

0.44Expected Goals (xG)2.13

3Corners5

14Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots13

3On Target5

4Off Target4

3Blocked4

5Inside Box11

5Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

393Total Passes471

309Accurate Passes377

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin

Piast Gliwice beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on August 24, 2024.

Goals: D. Kądzior (45').

Zaglebie Lubin controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Gliwice.

Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin — Ekstraklasa 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin