Zaglebie Lubin 1–1 Piast Gliwice: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Lubin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Piast Gliwice

A. Ławniczak 45'

G. Tomasiewicz 73'

10/7/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 11Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Zaglebie Lubin40%

×Draw25%

Piast Gliwice35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie LubinExpected goals in this matchPiast Gliwice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.35

Zaglebie Lubin

1.48

Piast Gliwice

1.35

Zaglebie Lubin creates 10% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 32 away

1.38

creates per match

1.38

1.32

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.38

Piast Gliwice

1.38

allows per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.32

Piast Gliwice

1.58

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Zaglebie Lubin-0.15scores less

Piast Gliwice-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Lubin ↓

Piast Gliwice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Zaglebie Lubin or draw

65%

Zaglebie Lubin or Piast Gliwice

75%

Draw or Piast Gliwice

60%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+

19%

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals

77%

Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals

43%

Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals

19%

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals

74%

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

39%

Piast Gliwice 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)

54%

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Lubin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.38 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Piast Gliwice attack 1.38 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zaglebie Lubin scores more

40%

level

25%

Piast Gliwice scores more

35%

Zaglebie Lubin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zaglebie Lubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

A. Ławniczak

Zaglebie Lubin · D

7.9

Match Events

45'

A. Ławniczak↳ D. Dąbrowski

54'

M. Szczepański← M. Ameyaw

59'

M. Mróz← S. Buletsa

59'

T. Makowski← M. Poletanović

67'

D. Kądzior← S. Krykun

73'

A. Woźniak← Juan Muñoz

73'

G. Tomasiewicz

77'

Damian Kądzior

83'

M. Grzybek← B. Kłudka

83'

D. Bohar← M. Wdowiak

83'

J. Holúbek← Jorge Félix

85'

Bartosz Kopacz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZaglebiePiast

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots15

3Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots15

6On Target5

2Off Target7

4Blocked3

6Inside Box13

6Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

522Total Passes525

418Accurate Passes412

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0