Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Nieciecza: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Lubin

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Nieciecza

M. Regula 20'

I. Durdov 90'

D. Hilbrycht 60'

4/24/2026

Ekstraklasa · Round 30KGHM Zaglebie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Zaglebie Lubin42%

×Draw24%

Nieciecza34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie LubinExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.41

Zaglebie Lubin

1.60

Nieciecza

1.41

Zaglebie Lubin creates 13% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 12 away

1.35

creates per match

1.42

1.40

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.35

Nieciecza

1.42

allows per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.40

Nieciecza

1.85

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Zaglebie Lubin-0.16scores less

Nieciecza-0.09on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Lubin ↓

Nieciecza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Zaglebie Lubin or draw

66%

Zaglebie Lubin or Nieciecza

76%

Draw or Nieciecza

58%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+

21%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals

80%

Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals

47%

Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals

22%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

76%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

41%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)

55%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Lubin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 36 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.85 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.35 + Nieciecza defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.60

Nieciecza attack 1.42 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zaglebie Lubin scores more

42%

level

24%

Nieciecza scores more

34%

Zaglebie Lubin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zaglebie Lubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

D. Hilbrycht

Nieciecza · M

7.6

Match Events

10'

Michał Nalepa

12'

Damian Hilbrycht

15'

Kamil Zapolnik

20'

M. Regula↳ I. Orlikowski

37'

42'

46'

58'

60'

D. Hilbrycht↳ J. Jimenez

63'

L. Lucic← M. Grzybek

64'

J. Sypek← A. Radwanski

64'

F. Kocaba← M. Dziewiatowski

64'

R. Kurzawa← M. Fassbender

66'

Marcel Regula

66'

Marcel Regula

76'

Luka Lucic

77'

S. Kowalczyk← L. Szabo

78'

M. Kosidis← D. Dabrowski

78'

I. Durdov← K. Zapolnik

83'

D. Biniek← I. Strzalek

90'

I. Durdov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZaglebieNieciecza

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots15

0.59Expected Goals (xG)1.65

6Corners4

11Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots15

2On Target8

5Off Target3

3Blocked4

9Inside Box7

1Outside Box8

Passing

42%Possession58%

275Total Passes389

185Accurate Passes314

67%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

-0.24Goals Prevented-0.24

Discipline

11Fouls16

6Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Ekstraklasa: Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Nieciecza

Nieciecza beat Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on April 24, 2026.

Goals: M. Regula (20'), D. Hilbrycht (60'), I. Durdov (90').

Nieciecza controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena in Lubin.

Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ekstraklasa: Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Nieciecza