Zaglebie Lubin 2–1 Nieciecza: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Lubin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nieciecza

M. Bartolewski 57'

T. Zajic 47'

P. Wlazło 9'

9/17/2021

Ekstraklasa · Round 8Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Zaglebie Lubin42%

×Draw24%

Nieciecza34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie LubinExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.41

Zaglebie Lubin

1.60

Nieciecza

1.41

Zaglebie Lubin creates 13% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 12 away

1.35

creates per match

1.42

1.40

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.35

Nieciecza

1.42

allows per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.40

Nieciecza

1.85

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Zaglebie Lubin-0.16scores less

Nieciecza-0.09on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Lubin ↓

Nieciecza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Zaglebie Lubin or draw

66%

Zaglebie Lubin or Nieciecza

76%

Draw or Nieciecza

58%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+

21%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals

80%

Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals

47%

Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals

22%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

76%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

41%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)

55%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Lubin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 36 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.85 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.35 + Nieciecza defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.60

Nieciecza attack 1.42 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zaglebie Lubin scores more

42%

level

24%

Nieciecza scores more

34%

Zaglebie Lubin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zaglebie Lubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

P. Wlazło

Nieciecza · M

9.3

Match Events

9'

P. Wlazło↳ B. Kukułowicz

45+1'

Ian Pino

46'

D. Pakulski← J. Baszkirow

46'

A. Ratajczyk← P. Szysz

47'

T. Zajic↳ Ł. Poręba

52'

Łukasz Poreba

57'

M. Bartolewski↳ Ían Soler

62'

E. Terpiłowski← S. Bonecki

62'

R. Gergel← P. Żyra

74'

M. Mešanović← K. Śpiewak

75'

M. Hubínek← S. Štefánik

82'

Jakub Wójcicki

82'

K. Chodyna← E. Daniel

82'

I. Zhigulev← F. Starzyński

85'

P. Czarnowski← A. Radwański

89'

K. Podliński← T. Zajic

90+3'

Ilya Zhigulev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZaglebieNieciecza

Overview

40%Possession60%

19Total Shots21

5Corners6

18Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots21

5On Target7

6Off Target8

8Blocked6

5Inside Box10

14Outside Box11

Passing

40%Possession60%

308Total Passes471

234Accurate Passes391

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls13

4Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza

Zaglebie Lubin beat Nieciecza 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on September 17, 2021.

Goals: P. Wlazło (9'), T. Zajic (47'), M. Bartolewski (57').

Nieciecza controlled possession (60%) and registered 21 shots to 19.

The match was played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Lubin.

Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza