Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk — Ekstraklasa 2026

Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin
FT
6 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
M. Nalepa 90'
K. Szmyt 84'
J. Sypek 65'
M. Kosidis 62' (pen)
A. Radwanski 15'
B. Kludka 10'
M. Awad 56'
M. Vojtko 35'
8/15/2025EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 5KGHM Zaglebie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Zaglebie Lubin40%
×Draw24%
Lechia Gdansk36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Lubin
1.56
Lechia Gdansk
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Lubin
1.38
Lechia Gdansk
1.62

allows per match

Zaglebie Lubin
1.32
Lechia Gdansk
1.75

finishing

Zaglebie Lubin-0.15scores less
Lechia Gdansk-0.21scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Lubin ↓

Lechia Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zaglebie Lubin or draw
64%
Zaglebie Lubin or Lechia Gdansk
76%
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
60%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+
20%
Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals
79%
Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals
46%
Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals
21%
Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
77%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
43%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)
53%
Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Lubin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.75 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.38 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.62 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zaglebie Lubin scores more
40%
level
24%
Lechia Gdansk scores more
36%

Zaglebie Lubin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zaglebie Lubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
D. DabrowskiZaglebie LubinZaglebie Lubin · M
9.7

Match Events

10'
B. Kludka↳ D. Dabrowski
15'
A. Radwanski
35'
M. Vojtko↳ R. Kapic
46'
M. Glogowski← B. Viunnyk
46'
M. Awad← K. Sezonienko
46'
T. Bobcek← D. Kurminowski
48'
Michalis KosidisPenalty cancelled
56'
M. Awad↳ C. Mena
62'
M. KosidisPenalty
65'
J. Sypek↳ M. Kosidis
72'
M. Wdowiak← A. Radwanski
72'
L. Lucic← J. Sypek
72'
K. Szmyt← M. Regula
73'
M. Kalahur← T. Neugebauer
73'
T. Wojtowicz← A. Jaunzems
80'
J. Corluka← B. Kludka
84'
K. Szmyt↳ D. Dabrowski
90+2'
C. Popielec← M. Kosidis
90'
M. Nalepa↳ D. Dabrowski

Possession

41%Zaglebie

Shots

22Zaglebie

Pass accuracy

48%Zaglebie

Statistics

ZaglebieLechia
Overview
41%Possession59%
22Total Shots7
2.91Expected Goals (xG)0.90
5Corners4
6Fouls9
Shots
22Total Shots7
9On Target2
10Off Target1
3Blocked4
15Inside Box5
7Outside Box2
Passing
41%Possession59%
270Total Passes391
198Accurate Passes307
73%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls9
1Offsides0

Ekstraklasa: Zaglebie Lubin 6–2 Lechia Gdansk

Zaglebie Lubin beat Lechia Gdansk 6-2 in Ekstraklasa on August 15, 2025.

Goals: B. Kludka (10'), A. Radwanski (15'), M. Vojtko (35'), M. Awad (56'), M. Kosidis (62' pen), J. Sypek (65'), K. Szmyt (84'), M. Nalepa (90').

Lechia Gdansk controlled possession (59%) and registered 7 shots to 22.

The match was played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena in Lubin.