Lechia Gdansk 0–2 Zaglebie Lubin: Result & Stats

Lechia Gdansk

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Zaglebie Lubin

M. Regula 27'

M. Grzybek 3'

2/23/2026

Ekstraklasa · Round 22Polsat Plus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Lechia Gdansk44%

×Draw24%

Zaglebie Lubin32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Lubin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.36

Lechia Gdansk

1.63

Zaglebie Lubin

1.36

Lechia Gdansk creates 20% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 30 away

1.59

creates per match

1.20

1.53

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.59

Zaglebie Lubin

1.20

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.53

Zaglebie Lubin

1.66

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Lechia Gdansk-0.02on par

Zaglebie Lubin-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Zaglebie Lubin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

68%

Lechia Gdansk or Zaglebie Lubin

76%

Draw or Zaglebie Lubin

56%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

22%

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

80%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

48%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

22%

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals

74%

Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals

39%

Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

58%

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.53 · 21 matches

Zaglebie Lubin away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.66 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.59 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.63

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.20 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

44%

level

24%

Zaglebie Lubin scores more

32%

Lechia Gdansk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

C. Mena

Lechia Gdansk · M

8.0

Match Events

3'

M. Grzybek↳ J. Diaz

27'

M. Regula

45+4'

Damian Dąbrowski

46'

B. Kludka← T. Wojtowicz

46'

K. Sezonienko← A. Cirkovic

51'

Tomasz NeugebauerPenalty cancelled

54'

Mateusz Grzybek

61'

I. Orlikowski← D. Michalski

69'

J. Sypek← J. Diaz

69'

A. Radwanski← M. Regula

71'

D. Kurminowski← T. Neugebauer

78'

Josip Ćorluka

87'

Ivan Zhelizko

89'

Rifet Kapić

89'

T. Makowski← M. Grzybek

89'

M. Kosidis← L. Szabo

90+4'

Michalis Kosidis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LechiaZaglebie

Overview

70%Possession30%

19Total Shots11

1.45Expected Goals (xG)1.01

11Corners2

11Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots11

7On Target5

4Off Target3

8Blocked3

16Inside Box8

3Outside Box3

Passing

70%Possession30%

496Total Passes220

396Accurate Passes131

80%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

0.71Goals Prevented0.71

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin

Zaglebie Lubin beat Lechia Gdansk 2-0 in Ekstraklasa on February 23, 2026.

Goals: M. Grzybek (3'), M. Regula (27').

Lechia Gdansk controlled possession (70%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Polsat Plus Arena in Gdansk.

Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin