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Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź — Ekstraklasa 2018

Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
9/30/2019EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 10Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Zaglebie Lubin58%
×Draw23%
ŁKS Łódź19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Lubin
1.82
ŁKS Łódź
0.95

Zaglebie Lubin creates 92% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 36 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Lubin
1.39
ŁKS Łódź
0.64

allows per match

Zaglebie Lubin
1.25
ŁKS Łódź
2.25

finishing

Zaglebie Lubin+0.00on par
ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Lubin ↓

ŁKS Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zaglebie Lubin or draw
81%
Zaglebie Lubin or ŁKS Łódź
77%
Draw or ŁKS Łódź
42%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+
33%
ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals
84%
Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals
54%
Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals
27%
ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
61%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
25%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)
75%
ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Lubin at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 137 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.25 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.39 + ŁKS Łódź defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.82

ŁKS Łódź attack 0.64 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zaglebie Lubin scores more
58%
level
23%
ŁKS Łódź scores more
19%

Zaglebie Lubin at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zaglebie Lubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Zaglebie Lubin 3–1 ŁKS Łódź

Zaglebie Lubin beat ŁKS Łódź 3-1 in Ekstraklasa on September 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Lubin.