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ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin — Ekstraklasa 2018

ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin
11/24/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 16Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ŁKS Łódź36%
×Draw25%
Zaglebie Lubin39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź
1.41
Zaglebie Lubin
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 137 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.26
Zaglebie Lubin
1.20

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.77
Zaglebie Lubin
1.55

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par
Zaglebie Lubin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Zaglebie Lubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw
61%
ŁKS Łódź or Zaglebie Lubin
75%
Draw or Zaglebie Lubin
64%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
17%
Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
76%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
41%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
17%
Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals
77%
Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals
43%
Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
48%
Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

Zaglebie Lubin away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.55 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.26 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.20 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more
36%
level
25%
Zaglebie Lubin scores more
39%

Zaglebie Lubin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zaglebie Lubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin

Zaglebie Lubin beat ŁKS Łódź 2-0 in Ekstraklasa on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Łódź.