Zaglebie Lubin 2–1 Gornik Zabrze: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Lubin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gornik Zabrze

T. Pieńko 73' (pen)

A. Ławniczak 51'

Y. Furukawa 14'

4/11/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 28Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Zaglebie Lubin43%

×Draw27%

Gornik Zabrze30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie LubinExpected goals in this matchGornik Zabrze

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.10

Zaglebie Lubin

1.36

Gornik Zabrze

1.10

Zaglebie Lubin creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

1.23

creates per match

0.88

1.33

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.23

Gornik Zabrze

0.88

allows per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.33

Gornik Zabrze

1.49

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Zaglebie Lubin-0.43scores less

Gornik Zabrze-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Lubin ↓

Gornik Zabrze →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Zaglebie Lubin or draw

70%

Zaglebie Lubin or Gornik Zabrze

73%

Draw or Gornik Zabrze

57%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+

20%

Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals

74%

Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals

39%

Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals

16%

Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals

67%

Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals

30%

Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)

59%

Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Lubin at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Gornik Zabrze away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.49 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.23 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Gornik Zabrze attack 0.88 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zaglebie Lubin scores more

43%

level

27%

Gornik Zabrze scores more

30%

Zaglebie Lubin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zaglebie Lubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

A. Ławniczak

Zaglebie Lubin · D

7.9

Match Events

14'

Y. Furukawa↳ D. Sarapata

29'

Marek Mróz

46'

M. Wdowiak← M. Mróz

51'

A. Ławniczak↳ D. Dąbrowski

55'

O. Sow← T. Ismaheel

69'

Mateusz WdowiakPenalty confirmed

71'

Filip Majchrowicz

73'

T. PieńkoPenalty

77'

Josema

82'

R. Adamski← D. Kurminowski

82'

T. Makowski← D. Dąbrowski

83'

S. Bakış← Ł. Podolski

83'

L. Ambros← Y. Furukawa

85'

86'

87'

90+5'

90+2'

90+6'

90+1'

F. Prebsl← P. Hellebrand

90'

S. Liseth← L. Zahović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZaglebieGornik

Overview

31%Possession69%

14Total Shots13

1.41Expected Goals (xG)1.02

3Corners2

13Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots13

5On Target7

6Off Target2

3Blocked4

9Inside Box5

5Outside Box8

Passing

31%Possession69%

271Total Passes638

196Accurate Passes548

72%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls9

3Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1