Gornik Zabrze 0–1 Zaglebie Lubin: Result & Stats

Gornik Zabrze

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zaglebie Lubin

T. Pieńko 32'

10/5/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 11Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Gornik Zabrze48%

×Draw25%

Zaglebie Lubin27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gornik ZabrzeExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Lubin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.13

Gornik Zabrze

1.59

Zaglebie Lubin

1.13

Gornik Zabrze creates 41% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

1.56

creates per match

1.14

1.11

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Gornik Zabrze

1.56

Zaglebie Lubin

1.14

allows per match

Gornik Zabrze

1.11

Zaglebie Lubin

1.62

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Gornik Zabrze+0.01on par

Zaglebie Lubin-0.35scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornik Zabrze ↓

Zaglebie Lubin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gornik Zabrze or draw

73%

Gornik Zabrze or Zaglebie Lubin

75%

Draw or Zaglebie Lubin

52%

Winning margin

Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+

25%

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals

80%

Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals

47%

Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals

21%

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals

68%

Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals

31%

Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)

64%

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornik Zabrze at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.11 · 21 matches

Zaglebie Lubin away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornik Zabrze attack 1.56 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.59

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.14 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gornik Zabrze scores more

48%

level

25%

Zaglebie Lubin scores more

27%

Gornik Zabrze at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gornik Zabrze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Ł. Podolski

Gornik Zabrze · F

8.2

Match Events

22'

Dominik Szala

32'

T. Pieńko↳ A. Radwański

45+1'

Michał Nalepa

46'

L. Ambros← L. Zahović

46'

Y. Furukawa← K. Lukoszek

46'

P. Olkowski← D. Szala

49'

Michał Nalepa

49'

Michał Nalepa

51'

Aleks Ławniczak

51'

J. Jach← M. Mróz

56'

Yosuke Furukawa

64'

T. Makowski← A. Radwański

65'

Luís Mata← M. Wdowiak

72'

S. Bakış← T. Ismaheel

81'

A. Woźniak← B. Kłudka

81'

D. Mikołajewski← T. Pieńko

82'

A. Buksa← P. Hellebrand

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GornikZaglebie

Overview

70%Possession30%

27Total Shots15

1.34Expected Goals (xG)0.83

17Corners5

4Fouls13

Shots

27Total Shots15

4On Target4

11Off Target5

12Blocked6

15Inside Box10

12Outside Box5

Passing

70%Possession30%

612Total Passes267

538Accurate Passes198

88%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

4Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin

Zaglebie Lubin beat Gornik Zabrze 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on October 5, 2024.

Goals: T. Pieńko (32').

Gornik Zabrze controlled possession (70%) and registered 27 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Zabrze.

Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin — Ekstraklasa 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin