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Zagłębie Lubin U19 vs Warta Poznań U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Zagłębie Lubin U19
Zagłębie Lubin U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Warta Poznań U19
Warta Poznań U19
4/28/2024Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin U1958%
×Draw19%
Warta Poznań U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagłębie Lubin U19
2.42
Warta Poznań U19
1.48

Zagłębie Lubin U19 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 30 away

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin U19
2.00
Warta Poznań U19
1.47

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin U19
1.50
Warta Poznań U19
2.83

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin U19+0.00on par
Warta Poznań U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin U19 ↓

Warta Poznań U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin U19 or draw
77%
Zagłębie Lubin U19 or Warta Poznań U19
81%
Draw or Warta Poznań U19
42%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin U19 wins by 2+
37%
Warta Poznań U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin U19 1+ goals
91%
Zagłębie Lubin U19 2+ goals
69%
Zagłębie Lubin U19 3+ goals
43%
Warta Poznań U19 1+ goals
77%
Warta Poznań U19 2+ goals
43%
Warta Poznań U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin U19 (draw refunded)
72%
Warta Poznań U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Warta Poznań U19 away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin U19 attack 2.00 + Warta Poznań U19 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Warta Poznań U19 attack 1.47 + Zagłębie Lubin U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zagłębie Lubin U19 scores more
58%
level
19%
Warta Poznań U19 scores more
23%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Zagłębie Lubin U19 2–1 Warta Poznań U19

Zagłębie Lubin U19 beat Warta Poznań U19 2-1 in Central Youth League on April 28, 2024.