Warta Poznań U19 1–1 Zagłębie Lubin U19

Warta Poznań U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Zagłębie Lubin U19

10/27/2024

Central Youth League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Warta Poznań U1937%

×Draw22%

Zagłębie Lubin U1941%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta Poznań U19Expected goals in this matchZagłębie Lubin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.83

Warta Poznań U19

1.75

Zagłębie Lubin U19

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 53 away

2.03

creates per match

1.79

1.87

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Warta Poznań U19

2.03

Zagłębie Lubin U19

1.79

allows per match

Warta Poznań U19

1.87

Zagłębie Lubin U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Poznań U19+0.00on par

Zagłębie Lubin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań U19 ↓

Zagłębie Lubin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Warta Poznań U19 or draw

59%

Warta Poznań U19 or Zagłębie Lubin U19

78%

Draw or Zagłębie Lubin U19

63%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań U19 wins by 2+

19%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Warta Poznań U19 1+ goals

83%

Warta Poznań U19 2+ goals

52%

Warta Poznań U19 3+ goals

25%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 1+ goals

84%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 2+ goals

54%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań U19 at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Zagłębie Lubin U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań U19 attack 2.03 + Zagłębie Lubin U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.75

Zagłębie Lubin U19 attack 1.79 + Warta Poznań U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Warta Poznań U19 scores more

37%

level

22%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 scores more

41%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff