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Zagłębie Lubin II vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
FT
6 – 0
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
9/16/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II69%
×Draw16%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagłębie Lubin II
2.91
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.34

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 117% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
2.71
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.28

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.40
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
3.11

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par
Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Polonia-Stal Świdnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw
85%
Zagłębie Lubin II or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
84%
Draw or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
31%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
49%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
94%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
78%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
54%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
74%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
39%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
82%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.40 · 52 matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 2.71 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.91

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.28 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
69%
level
16%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
15%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagłębie Lubin II vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica

Zagłębie Lubin II beat Polonia-Stal Świdnica 6-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Lubin.