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Polonia-Stal Świdnica vs Zagłębie Lubin II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
FT
4 – 2
Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
4/10/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 25Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica22%
×Draw21%
Zagłębie Lubin II57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.27
Zagłębie Lubin II
2.13

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 51 away

creates per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.11
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.76

allows per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
2.50
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.43

finishing

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par
Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia-Stal Świdnica ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or draw
43%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica or Zagłębie Lubin II
79%
Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II
78%

Winning margin

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
9%
Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
72%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
36%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
14%
Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
88%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
63%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
28%
Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia-Stal Świdnica at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.11 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.76 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
22%
level
21%
Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
57%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Polonia-Stal Świdnica 4–2 Zagłębie Lubin II

Polonia-Stal Świdnica beat Zagłębie Lubin II 4-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy in Świdnica.