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Zagłębie Lubin II vs Polonia Bytom — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
R. Adamski 86'
D. Dudzinski 66'
4/23/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 25Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II44%
×Draw22%
Polonia Bytom34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.93
Polonia Bytom
1.66

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
2.71
Polonia Bytom
1.92

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.40
Polonia Bytom
1.15

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par
Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Polonia Bytom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw
66%
Zagłębie Lubin II or Polonia Bytom
78%
Draw or Polonia Bytom
56%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
24%
Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
85%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
57%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
30%
Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
81%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
49%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
57%
Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.40 · 52 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 2.71 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.93

Polonia Bytom attack 1.92 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
44%
level
22%
Polonia Bytom scores more
34%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'
D. Dudzinski
86'
R. Adamski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Zagłębie Lubin II 2–0 Polonia Bytom

Zagłębie Lubin II beat Polonia Bytom 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 23, 2022.

Goals: D. Dudzinski (66'), R. Adamski (86').

The match was played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Lubin.