Polonia Bytom 3–1 Zagłębie Lubin II: Result & Stats

Polonia Bytom

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Zagłębie Lubin II

3/2/2024

II Liga - East · Round 22Stadion Polonii Bytom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Polonia Bytom60%

×Draw20%

Zagłębie Lubin II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia BytomExpected goals in this matchZagłębie Lubin II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.18

Polonia Bytom

2.18

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.18

Polonia Bytom creates 85% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

2.38

creates per match

1.21

1.15

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Polonia Bytom

2.38

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.21

allows per match

Polonia Bytom

1.15

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw

80%

Polonia Bytom or Zagłębie Lubin II

80%

Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II

40%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+

37%

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals

89%

Polonia Bytom 2+ goals

64%

Polonia Bytom 3+ goals

37%

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals

69%

Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals

33%

Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)

75%

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.38 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.18

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.21 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more

60%

level

20%

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more

20%

Polonia Bytom at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff