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Zagłębie Lubin II vs Piast Żmigród — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
FT
3 – 3
Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
9/26/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II59%
×Draw19%
Piast Żmigród22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagłębie Lubin II
2.41
Piast Żmigród
1.44

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 35 away

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
2.71
Piast Żmigród
1.49

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.40
Piast Żmigród
2.11

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par
Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Piast Żmigród →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw
78%
Zagłębie Lubin II or Piast Żmigród
81%
Draw or Piast Żmigród
41%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
37%
Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
91%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
69%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
43%
Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
76%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
42%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
72%
Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.40 · 52 matches

Piast Żmigród away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 2.71 + Piast Żmigród defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.41

Piast Żmigród attack 1.49 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
59%
level
19%
Piast Żmigród scores more
22%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Zagłębie Lubin II 3–3 Piast Żmigród

Zagłębie Lubin II and Piast Żmigród drew 3-3 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Lubin.