Piast Żmigród 0–2 Zagłębie Lubin II: Result & Stats

Piast Żmigród

FT

0 – 2

Zagłębie Lubin II

5/5/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Piast Żmigród31%

×Draw24%

Zagłębie Lubin II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Piast ŻmigródExpected goals in this matchZagłębie Lubin II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.71

Piast Żmigród

1.39

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.71

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

1.34

creates per match

1.76

1.66

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Piast Żmigród

1.34

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.76

allows per match

Piast Żmigród

1.66

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Żmigród ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Piast Żmigród or draw

55%

Piast Żmigród or Zagłębie Lubin II

76%

Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II

69%

Winning margin

Piast Żmigród wins by 2+

14%

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Piast Żmigród 1+ goals

75%

Piast Żmigród 2+ goals

40%

Piast Żmigród 3+ goals

16%

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals

82%

Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals

51%

Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)

41%

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Żmigród at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Żmigród attack 1.34 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.76 + Piast Żmigród defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Piast Żmigród scores more

31%

level

24%

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more

45%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff