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Zagłębie Lubin II vs Odra Wodzislaw — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
FT
7 – 0
Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
9/18/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II61%
×Draw19%
Odra Wodzislaw20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagłębie Lubin II
2.50
Odra Wodzislaw
1.38

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 81% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
2.71
Odra Wodzislaw
1.35

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.40
Odra Wodzislaw
2.29

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par
Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw
80%
Zagłębie Lubin II or Odra Wodzislaw
81%
Draw or Odra Wodzislaw
39%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
40%
Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
92%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
71%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
45%
Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
75%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
40%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
75%
Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.40 · 52 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 2.71 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.50

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
61%
level
19%
Odra Wodzislaw scores more
20%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagłębie Lubin II vs Odra Wodzislaw

Zagłębie Lubin II beat Odra Wodzislaw 7-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Lubin.