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Odra Wodzislaw vs Zagłębie Lubin II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
4/27/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Wodzislaw31%
×Draw22%
Zagłębie Lubin II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Wodzislaw
1.55
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.97

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Odra Wodzislaw
1.68
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.76

allows per match

Odra Wodzislaw
2.18
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.43

finishing

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par
Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Wodzislaw ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Odra Wodzislaw or draw
52%
Odra Wodzislaw or Zagłębie Lubin II
78%
Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II
69%

Winning margin

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
14%
Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
79%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
46%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
20%
Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
86%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
58%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
39%
Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.76 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Odra Wodzislaw scores more
31%
level
22%
Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
48%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Odra Wodzislaw 3–4 Zagłębie Lubin II

Zagłębie Lubin II beat Odra Wodzislaw 4-3 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Wodzisław Śląski.