Zagłębie Lubin II 1–0 Lech Poznań II

Zagłębie Lubin II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lech Poznań II

8/10/2022

II Liga - East · Round 5Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II45%

×Draw24%

Lech Poznań II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zagłębie Lubin IIExpected goals in this matchLech Poznań II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.29

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.63

Lech Poznań II

1.29

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 86 away

1.70

creates per match

1.14

1.45

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.70

Lech Poznań II

1.14

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.45

Lech Poznań II

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Lech Poznań II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw

70%

Zagłębie Lubin II or Lech Poznań II

76%

Draw or Lech Poznań II

55%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+

23%

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals

80%

Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals

48%

Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals

22%

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals

72%

Lech Poznań II 2+ goals

37%

Lech Poznań II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)

60%

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

Lech Poznań II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.70 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.63

Lech Poznań II attack 1.14 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more

45%

level

24%

Lech Poznań II scores more

30%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff