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Lech Poznań II vs Zagłębie Lubin II — II Liga - East 2019

Lech Poznań II
Lech Poznań II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
9/3/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 7Stadion Amiki Wronki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Lech Poznań II45%
×Draw24%
Zagłębie Lubin II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznań II
1.67
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.35

Lech Poznań II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 52 away

creates per match

Lech Poznań II
1.35
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.21

allows per match

Lech Poznań II
1.49
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.98

finishing

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par
Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań II ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lech Poznań II or draw
69%
Lech Poznań II or Zagłębie Lubin II
76%
Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II
55%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+
23%
Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals
81%
Lech Poznań II 2+ goals
50%
Lech Poznań II 3+ goals
23%
Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
74%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
39%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)
59%
Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.49 · 85 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań II attack 1.35 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.67

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.21 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lech Poznań II scores more
45%
level
24%
Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
31%

Lech Poznań II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lech Poznań II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Lech Poznań II 2–1 Zagłębie Lubin II

Lech Poznań II beat Zagłębie Lubin II 2-1 in II Liga - East on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Amiki Wronki in Wronki.