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Zagłębie Lubin II vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
S. Rydlikowski 78'
M. Baszak 45+1'
J. Piatek 44'
K. Piatek 24'
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II29%
×Draw22%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.50
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
2.00

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.80
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
2.20

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.80
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.20

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw
51%
Zagłębie Lubin II or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
78%
Draw or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
71%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
13%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
78%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
44%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
19%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals
86%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals
59%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
37%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.80 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 2.20 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
29%
level
22%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more
49%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Karkonosze Jelenia Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
K. Piatek
44'
J. Piatek
45+1'
M. Baszak
78'
S. Rydlikowski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagłębie Lubin II vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra beat Zagłębie Lubin II 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.

Goals: K. Piatek (24'), J. Piatek (44'), M. Baszak (45+1'), S. Rydlikowski (78').