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Zagłębie Lubin II vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
FT
0 – 3
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
7/1/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II21%
×Draw20%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra58%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.25
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
2.17

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra creates 74% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.50
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
2.33

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
2.00
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.00

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw
42%
Zagłębie Lubin II or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
80%
Draw or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
79%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
9%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
71%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
36%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
13%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals
89%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals
64%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
27%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.50 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 2.33 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
21%
level
20%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more
58%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Karkonosze Jelenia Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagłębie Lubin II vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra beat Zagłębie Lubin II 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 1, 2023.