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Zagłębie Lubin II vs Kalisz — II Liga - East 2019

Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kalisz
Kalisz
4/17/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 27Akademii Piłkarskiej KGHM Zagłębie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II42%
×Draw25%
Kalisz33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.50
Kalisz
1.31

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 104 away

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.70
Kalisz
1.17

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.45
Kalisz
1.29

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par
Kalisz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Kalisz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw
67%
Zagłębie Lubin II or Kalisz
75%
Draw or Kalisz
58%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
20%
Kalisz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
78%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
44%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
19%
Kalisz 1+ goals
73%
Kalisz 2+ goals
38%
Kalisz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
56%
Kalisz (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

Kalisz away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.29 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.70 + Kalisz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kalisz attack 1.17 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
42%
level
25%
Kalisz scores more
33%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Zagłębie Lubin II 2–0 Kalisz

Zagłębie Lubin II beat Kalisz 2-0 in II Liga - East on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Akademii Piłkarskiej KGHM Zagłębie in Lubin.