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Kalisz vs Zagłębie Lubin II — II Liga - East 2019

Kalisz
Kalisz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
9/21/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 10Stadion OSRiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Kalisz49%
×Draw24%
Zagłębie Lubin II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalisz
1.73
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.24

Kalisz creates 40% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 52 away

creates per match

Kalisz
1.48
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.21

allows per match

Kalisz
1.27
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.98

finishing

Kalisz+0.00on par
Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalisz ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kalisz or draw
73%
Kalisz or Zagłębie Lubin II
76%
Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II
51%

Winning margin

Kalisz wins by 2+
26%
Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kalisz 1+ goals
82%
Kalisz 2+ goals
52%
Kalisz 3+ goals
25%
Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
71%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
35%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kalisz (draw refunded)
64%
Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalisz at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 104 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalisz attack 1.48 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.73

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.21 + Kalisz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kalisz scores more
49%
level
24%
Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
27%

Kalisz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kalisz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Kalisz 2–1 Zagłębie Lubin II

Kalisz beat Zagłębie Lubin II 2-1 in II Liga - East on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSRiR in Kalisz.