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Zagłębie Lubin II vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
FT
1 – 1
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
P. Kusztal 28' (pen)
D. Barbus 67'
8/18/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II57%
×Draw20%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagłębie Lubin II
2.27
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.40

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 69 away

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
2.71
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.39

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.40
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.84

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw
77%
Zagłębie Lubin II or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
80%
Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
43%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
35%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
90%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
66%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
39%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
75%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
41%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
71%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.40 · 52 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 2.71 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.27

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
57%
level
20%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
23%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
P. KusztalPenalty
67'
D. Barbus

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagłębie Lubin II vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Zagłębie Lubin II and Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 18, 2021.

Goals: P. Kusztal (28' pen), D. Barbus (67').

The match was played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Lubin.