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Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Zagłębie Lubin II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
N. Jaszczak 41' (pen)
P. Kusztal 58'
3/19/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Boisko przy PMDK im. H. Jordana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry35%
×Draw24%
Zagłębie Lubin II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.46
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.60

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.76

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.43

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
59%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Zagłębie Lubin II
76%
Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II
65%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
16%
Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
77%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
43%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
18%
Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
80%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
47%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
46%
Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.76 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
35%
level
24%
Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
41%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
N. JaszczakPenalty
58'
P. Kusztal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1–1 Zagłębie Lubin II

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry and Zagłębie Lubin II drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 19, 2022.

Goals: N. Jaszczak (41' pen), P. Kusztal (58').

The match was played at Boisko przy PMDK im. H. Jordana in Tarnowskie Góry.