Zacatepec 1948 2–1 Tapachula: Result & Stats

Zacatepec 1948

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tapachula

2/29/2020

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 6Estadio Agustín Coruco Díaz (Zacatepec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zacatepec 194849%

×Draw24%

Tapachula27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zacatepec 1948Expected goals in this matchTapachula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.23

Zacatepec 1948

1.75

Tapachula

1.23

Zacatepec 1948 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 24 away

1.37

creates per match

1.17

1.30

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Zacatepec 1948

1.37

Tapachula

1.17

allows per match

Zacatepec 1948

1.30

Tapachula

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zacatepec 1948+0.00on par

Tapachula+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zacatepec 1948 ↓

Tapachula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Zacatepec 1948 or draw

73%

Zacatepec 1948 or Tapachula

76%

Draw or Tapachula

51%

Winning margin

Zacatepec 1948 wins by 2+

27%

Tapachula wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Zacatepec 1948 1+ goals

83%

Zacatepec 1948 2+ goals

52%

Zacatepec 1948 3+ goals

25%

Tapachula 1+ goals

71%

Tapachula 2+ goals

35%

Tapachula 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Zacatepec 1948 (draw refunded)

65%

Tapachula (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zacatepec 1948 at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

Tapachula away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zacatepec 1948 attack 1.37 + Tapachula defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tapachula attack 1.17 + Zacatepec 1948 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zacatepec 1948 scores more

49%

level

24%

Tapachula scores more

27%

Zacatepec 1948 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zacatepec 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff