Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tapachula vs Zacatepec 1948 — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tapachula
Tapachula
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zacatepec 1948
Zacatepec 1948
11/10/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Víctor Manuel Reyna (Tuxtla Gutiérrez)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Tapachula44%
×Draw26%
Zacatepec 194831%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tapachula
1.48
Zacatepec 1948
1.20

Tapachula creates 23% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 27 away

creates per match

Tapachula
1.58
Zacatepec 1948
1.11

allows per match

Tapachula
1.29
Zacatepec 1948
1.37

finishing

Tapachula+0.00on par
Zacatepec 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tapachula ↓

Zacatepec 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tapachula or draw
69%
Tapachula or Zacatepec 1948
74%
Draw or Zacatepec 1948
56%

Winning margin

Tapachula wins by 2+
21%
Zacatepec 1948 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tapachula 1+ goals
77%
Tapachula 2+ goals
43%
Tapachula 3+ goals
19%
Zacatepec 1948 1+ goals
70%
Zacatepec 1948 2+ goals
34%
Zacatepec 1948 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tapachula (draw refunded)
59%
Zacatepec 1948 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tapachula at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Zacatepec 1948 away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tapachula attack 1.58 + Zacatepec 1948 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zacatepec 1948 attack 1.11 + Tapachula defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tapachula scores more
44%
level
26%
Zacatepec 1948 scores more
31%

Tapachula at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tapachula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tapachula 2–1 Zacatepec 1948

Tapachula beat Zacatepec 1948 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Víctor Manuel Reyna (Tuxtla Gutiérrez).