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Zacatepec 1948 vs Tapachula — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Zacatepec 1948
Zacatepec 1948
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tapachula
Tapachula
8/27/2016Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Agustín Coruco Díaz (Zacatepec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Zacatepec 194850%
×Draw23%
Tapachula28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zacatepec 1948
1.83
Tapachula
1.31

Zacatepec 1948 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 38 away

creates per match

Zacatepec 1948
1.57
Tapachula
1.26

allows per match

Zacatepec 1948
1.37
Tapachula
2.08

finishing

Zacatepec 1948+0.00on par
Tapachula+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zacatepec 1948 ↓

Tapachula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zacatepec 1948 or draw
72%
Zacatepec 1948 or Tapachula
77%
Draw or Tapachula
50%

Winning margin

Zacatepec 1948 wins by 2+
27%
Tapachula wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zacatepec 1948 1+ goals
84%
Zacatepec 1948 2+ goals
54%
Zacatepec 1948 3+ goals
28%
Tapachula 1+ goals
73%
Tapachula 2+ goals
38%
Tapachula 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zacatepec 1948 (draw refunded)
64%
Tapachula (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zacatepec 1948 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Tapachula away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zacatepec 1948 attack 1.57 + Tapachula defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.83

Tapachula attack 1.26 + Zacatepec 1948 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zacatepec 1948 scores more
50%
level
23%
Tapachula scores more
28%

Zacatepec 1948 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zacatepec 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Zacatepec 1948 4–2 Tapachula

Zacatepec 1948 beat Tapachula 4-2 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 27, 2016.

The match was played at Estadio Agustín Coruco Díaz (Zacatepec).