Zacatepec 1948 4–3 Loros Universidad

Zacatepec 1948

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Loros Universidad

J. Ramis 78'

E. Bonfigli 77'

R. Prieto 58', 3'

C. Rodríguez 64'

E. Cruz 34', 32'

4/8/2017

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 16Estadio Agustín Coruco Díaz (Zacatepec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Zacatepec 194852%

×Draw22%

Loros Universidad26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zacatepec 1948Expected goals in this matchLoros Universidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.32

Zacatepec 1948

1.96

Loros Universidad

1.32

Zacatepec 1948 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 11 away

1.57

creates per match

1.27

1.37

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Zacatepec 1948

1.57

Loros Universidad

1.27

allows per match

Zacatepec 1948

1.37

Loros Universidad

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zacatepec 1948+0.00on par

Loros Universidad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zacatepec 1948 ↓

Loros Universidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Zacatepec 1948 or draw

74%

Zacatepec 1948 or Loros Universidad

78%

Draw or Loros Universidad

48%

Winning margin

Zacatepec 1948 wins by 2+

30%

Loros Universidad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Zacatepec 1948 1+ goals

86%

Zacatepec 1948 2+ goals

58%

Zacatepec 1948 3+ goals

31%

Loros Universidad 1+ goals

73%

Loros Universidad 2+ goals

38%

Loros Universidad 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Zacatepec 1948 (draw refunded)

67%

Loros Universidad (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zacatepec 1948 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Loros Universidad away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zacatepec 1948 attack 1.57 + Loros Universidad defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.96

Loros Universidad attack 1.27 + Zacatepec 1948 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zacatepec 1948 scores more

52%

level

22%

Loros Universidad scores more

26%

Zacatepec 1948 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zacatepec 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

R. Prieto

24'

E. Bonfigli← V. Guajardo

32'

34'

52'

58'

64'

67'

M. Romero← J. Miramontes

77'

E. Bonfigli

78'

J. Ramis

84'

J. Martínez← M. Orozco

86'

A. Ramírez← I. Díaz

Zacatepec

Loros

23

Tejeda

2

Ocaña

4

Madrid

26

▼

13

15

28

1

⚽

Rodríguez

19

⚽2

Cruz

18

López

5

▼

12

3

2

5

24

28

▼

Miramonte

7

Alvarado

9

⚽2

Prieto

11

⚽

Ramis

4

▼

Guajardo

91

▼

Escobedo

Manager: C. Gutiérrez

24'▲E. Bonfigli←▼V. Guajardo

52'▲J. Lara←▼G. Escobedo

67'▲M. Romero←▼J. Miramontes

Zacatepec 1948 substitutes

22Bonfigli19Lara33Romero13Caso16Sena27Vázquez30Romero

Manager: V. Mora

84'▲J. Martínez←▼M. Orozco

86'▲A. Ramírez←▼I. Díaz

Loros Universidad substitutes

27Martínez6Ramírez3Sánchez20Alférez22Camou24Hernández30Partida

Liga de Expansión MX: Zacatepec 1948 4–3 Loros Universidad

Zacatepec 1948 beat Loros Universidad 4-3 in Liga de Expansión MX on April 8, 2017.

Goals: R. Prieto (3', 58'), E. Cruz (32', 34'), C. Rodríguez (64'), E. Bonfigli (77'), J. Ramis (78').

The match was played at Estadio Agustín Coruco Díaz (Zacatepec).

Zacatepec 1948 vs Loros Universidad — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga de Expansión MX: Zacatepec 1948 4–3 Loros Universidad