Loros Universidad 1–3 Zacatepec 1948

Loros Universidad

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Zacatepec 1948

A. Ramírez 90+2'

E. Bonfigli 90+1'

D. López 78'

J. Ramis 66'

11/6/2016

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Olímpico Universitario de Colima (Colima)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Loros Universidad37%

×Draw27%

Zacatepec 194836%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Loros UniversidadExpected goals in this matchZacatepec 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.21

Loros Universidad

1.23

Zacatepec 1948

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 34 away

1.17

creates per match

1.18

1.25

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Loros Universidad

1.17

Zacatepec 1948

1.18

allows per match

Loros Universidad

1.25

Zacatepec 1948

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loros Universidad+0.00on par

Zacatepec 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loros Universidad ↓

Zacatepec 1948 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Loros Universidad or draw

64%

Loros Universidad or Zacatepec 1948

73%

Draw or Zacatepec 1948

63%

Winning margin

Loros Universidad wins by 2+

16%

Zacatepec 1948 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Loros Universidad 1+ goals

71%

Loros Universidad 2+ goals

35%

Loros Universidad 3+ goals

13%

Zacatepec 1948 1+ goals

70%

Zacatepec 1948 2+ goals

34%

Zacatepec 1948 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Loros Universidad (draw refunded)

51%

Zacatepec 1948 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loros Universidad at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Zacatepec 1948 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loros Universidad attack 1.17 + Zacatepec 1948 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Zacatepec 1948 attack 1.18 + Loros Universidad defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Loros Universidad scores more

37%

level

27%

Zacatepec 1948 scores more

36%

Loros Universidad at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Loros Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

E. Bonfigli← Diego Armando Calderón

46'

E. Cruz← J. Martínez

46'

D. López← P. Medrano

55'

J. Ramis← L. Cruz

62'

Á. Partida← C. Rodríguez

66'

78'

79'

90+1'

90+2'

Loros

Zacatepec

12

Navarrete

14

▼

3

24

28

7

30

97

▼

Medrano

4

Guajardo

19

Lara

17

▼

23

4

26

17

25

6

⚽

Ramírez

24

Hernández

1

▼

Rodríguez

18

▼

López

27

▼

Martínez

5

Díaz

Manager: V. Mora

46'▲E. Cruz←▼J. Martínez

62'▲Á. Partida←▼C. Rodríguez

79'▲I. Ávalos←▼B. López

Loros Universidad substitutes

19Cruz30Partida21Ávalos11Amador14Cruz22Camou28Chavarría

Manager: C. Gutiérrez

42'▲E. Bonfigli←▼Diego Armando Calderón

46'▲D. López←▼P. Medrano

55'▲J. Ramis←▼L. Cruz

Zacatepec 1948 substitutes

22Bonfigli9López11Ramis13Caso16Sena18Veyna33Romero

Liga de Expansión MX: Loros Universidad 1–3 Zacatepec 1948

Zacatepec 1948 beat Loros Universidad 3-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on November 6, 2016.

Goals: J. Ramis (66'), D. López (78'), E. Bonfigli (90+1'), A. Ramírez (90+2').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Universitario de Colima (Colima).

Loros Universidad vs Zacatepec 1948 — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga de Expansión MX: Loros Universidad 1–3 Zacatepec 1948