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Yxhult vs Säffle SK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Yxhult
Yxhult
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Säffle SK
Säffle SK
6/18/2023Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 12Moabvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Yxhult50%
×Draw23%
Säffle SK27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yxhult
1.84
Säffle SK
1.29

Yxhult creates 43% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 26 away

creates per match

Yxhult
1.45
Säffle SK
0.81

allows per match

Yxhult
1.77
Säffle SK
2.23

finishing

Yxhult+0.00on par
Säffle SK+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yxhult ↓

Säffle SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Yxhult or draw
73%
Yxhult or Säffle SK
77%
Draw or Säffle SK
50%

Winning margin

Yxhult wins by 2+
28%
Säffle SK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Yxhult 1+ goals
84%
Yxhult 2+ goals
55%
Yxhult 3+ goals
28%
Säffle SK 1+ goals
72%
Säffle SK 2+ goals
37%
Säffle SK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Yxhult (draw refunded)
65%
Säffle SK (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yxhult at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

Säffle SK away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yxhult attack 1.45 + Säffle SK defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.84

Säffle SK attack 0.81 + Yxhult defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Yxhult scores more
50%
level
23%
Säffle SK scores more
27%

Yxhult at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Yxhult will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Yxhult 4–1 Säffle SK

Yxhult beat Säffle SK 4-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on June 18, 2023.

The match was played at Moabvallen in Kumla.