Säffle SK 3–2 Yxhult: Result & Stats

Säffle SK

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Yxhult

10/15/2023

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 25Sporthälla IP A-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Säffle SK41%

×Draw23%

Yxhult36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Säffle SKExpected goals in this matchYxhult

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.59

Säffle SK

1.70

Yxhult

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 40 away

1.31

creates per match

1.60

1.58

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Säffle SK

1.31

Yxhult

1.60

allows per match

Säffle SK

1.58

Yxhult

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Säffle SK+0.00on par

Yxhult+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Säffle SK ↓

Yxhult →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Säffle SK or draw

64%

Säffle SK or Yxhult

77%

Draw or Yxhult

59%

Winning margin

Säffle SK wins by 2+

21%

Yxhult wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Säffle SK 1+ goals

82%

Säffle SK 2+ goals

51%

Säffle SK 3+ goals

24%

Yxhult 1+ goals

80%

Yxhult 2+ goals

47%

Yxhult 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Säffle SK (draw refunded)

53%

Yxhult (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Säffle SK at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

Yxhult away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Säffle SK attack 1.31 + Yxhult defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.70

Yxhult attack 1.60 + Säffle SK defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Säffle SK scores more

41%

level

23%

Yxhult scores more

36%

Säffle SK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Säffle SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff