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Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — Super League 2018

Yverdon Sport
Yverdon Sport
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
4/20/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 33Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Yverdon Sport48%
×Draw24%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yverdon Sport
1.70
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.26

Yverdon Sport creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 20 away

creates per match

Yverdon Sport
1.55
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.15

allows per match

Yverdon Sport
1.37
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.85

finishing

Yverdon Sport+0.00on par
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yverdon Sport ↓

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Yverdon Sport or draw
72%
Yverdon Sport or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
76%
Draw or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
52%

Winning margin

Yverdon Sport wins by 2+
25%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Yverdon Sport 1+ goals
82%
Yverdon Sport 2+ goals
51%
Yverdon Sport 3+ goals
24%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals
72%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals
36%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)
63%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yverdon Sport at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yverdon Sport attack 1.55 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.70

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.15 + Yverdon Sport defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Yverdon Sport scores more
48%
level
24%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more
28%

Yverdon Sport at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Yverdon Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Yverdon Sport beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3-0 in Super League on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Yverdon-les-Bains.