Yverdon Sport 2–1 Grasshoppers: Result & Stats

Yverdon Sport

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Grasshoppers

H. Komano 82'

B. Céspedes 49'

G. Morandi 3'

8/31/2024

Super League · Round 6Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Yverdon Sport43%

×Draw26%

Grasshoppers30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yverdon SportExpected goals in this matchGrasshoppers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.14

Yverdon Sport

1.42

Grasshoppers

1.14

Yverdon Sport creates 25% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 25 away

1.05

creates per match

1.03

1.25

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Yverdon Sport

1.05

Grasshoppers

1.03

allows per match

Yverdon Sport

1.25

Grasshoppers

1.79

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Yverdon Sport-0.05on par

Grasshoppers-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yverdon Sport ↓

Grasshoppers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Yverdon Sport or draw

70%

Yverdon Sport or Grasshoppers

74%

Draw or Grasshoppers

57%

Winning margin

Yverdon Sport wins by 2+

21%

Grasshoppers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Yverdon Sport 1+ goals

76%

Yverdon Sport 2+ goals

41%

Yverdon Sport 3+ goals

17%

Grasshoppers 1+ goals

68%

Grasshoppers 2+ goals

32%

Grasshoppers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)

59%

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yverdon Sport at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

Grasshoppers away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yverdon Sport attack 1.05 + Grasshoppers defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.42

Grasshoppers attack 1.03 + Yverdon Sport defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yverdon Sport scores more

43%

level

26%

Grasshoppers scores more

30%

Yverdon Sport at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yverdon Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Aké

Yverdon Sport · F

7.7

Match Events

3'

G. Morandi↳ E. Maurin

41'

Dimitrije Kamenović

45+1'

Tsiy William Ndenge

46'

N. Gunnarsson← J. Gnakpa

49'

B. Céspedes↳ F. González

57'

M. Baradji← Mauro Rodrigues

65'

H. Komano← M. Ntelo

65'

A. Sauthier← Gonçalo Esteves

73'

Asumah Abubakar← E. Maurin

73'

N. Muci← Lee Young-Jun

82'

H. Komano↳ M. Aké

84'

R. Alves← F. González

85'

P. Schürpf← A. Abrashi

85'

F. de Carvalho← A. Mabil

90+1'

Boris Céspedes

90+2'

T. Ndicka← B. Schmitz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YverdonGrasshoppers

Overview

42%Possession58%

7Total Shots10

0.73Expected Goals (xG)0.89

2Corners5

9Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots10

3On Target3

3Off Target4

1Blocked3

2Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

306Total Passes422

229Accurate Passes332

75%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3