Yverdon Sport 0–2 FC Zurich: Result & Stats

Yverdon Sport

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FC Zurich

7/20/2024

Super League · Round 1Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Yverdon Sport44%

×Draw24%

FC Zurich32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yverdon SportExpected goals in this matchFC Zurich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.34

Yverdon Sport

1.61

FC Zurich

1.34

Yverdon Sport creates 20% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 147 away

1.55

creates per match

1.31

1.37

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Yverdon Sport

1.55

FC Zurich

1.31

allows per match

Yverdon Sport

1.37

FC Zurich

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yverdon Sport+0.00on par

FC Zurich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yverdon Sport ↓

FC Zurich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Yverdon Sport or draw

68%

Yverdon Sport or FC Zurich

76%

Draw or FC Zurich

56%

Winning margin

Yverdon Sport wins by 2+

22%

FC Zurich wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Yverdon Sport 1+ goals

80%

Yverdon Sport 2+ goals

48%

Yverdon Sport 3+ goals

22%

FC Zurich 1+ goals

74%

FC Zurich 2+ goals

39%

FC Zurich 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)

58%

FC Zurich (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yverdon Sport at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

FC Zurich away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.67 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yverdon Sport attack 1.55 + FC Zurich defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

FC Zurich attack 1.31 + Yverdon Sport defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Yverdon Sport scores more

44%

level

24%

FC Zurich scores more

32%

Yverdon Sport at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Yverdon Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff