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FC Zurich vs Yverdon Sport — Super League 2018

FC Zurich
FC Zurich
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Yverdon Sport
Yverdon Sport
2/22/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FC Zurich56%
×Draw22%
Yverdon Sport22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Zurich
1.91
Yverdon Sport
1.11

FC Zurich creates 72% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 38 away

creates per match

FC Zurich
1.53
Yverdon Sport
0.82

allows per match

FC Zurich
1.40
Yverdon Sport
2.29

finishing

FC Zurich+0.00on par
Yverdon Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

Yverdon Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw
78%
FC Zurich or Yverdon Sport
78%
Draw or Yverdon Sport
44%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+
32%
Yverdon Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals
85%
FC Zurich 2+ goals
57%
FC Zurich 3+ goals
30%
Yverdon Sport 1+ goals
67%
Yverdon Sport 2+ goals
30%
Yverdon Sport 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)
72%
Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.40 · 147 matches

Yverdon Sport away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.29 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 1.53 + Yverdon Sport defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.91

Yverdon Sport attack 0.82 + FC Zurich defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC Zurich scores more
56%
level
22%
Yverdon Sport scores more
22%

FC Zurich at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Zurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Zurich vs Yverdon Sport

FC Zurich beat Yverdon Sport 2-1 in Super League on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Letzigrund in Zürich.