Yverdon Sport 1–0 FC ST. Gallen: Result & Stats

Yverdon Sport

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC ST. Gallen

A. Marchesano 90+2'

2/16/2025

Super League · Round 24Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Yverdon Sport29%

×Draw28%

FC ST. Gallen43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yverdon SportExpected goals in this matchFC ST. Gallen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.30

Yverdon Sport

1.02

FC ST. Gallen

1.30

FC ST. Gallen creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

0.83

creates per match

1.78

0.83

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Yverdon Sport

0.83

FC ST. Gallen

1.78

allows per match

Yverdon Sport

0.83

FC ST. Gallen

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yverdon Sport+0.00on par

FC ST. Gallen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yverdon Sport ↓

FC ST. Gallen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Yverdon Sport or draw

57%

Yverdon Sport or FC ST. Gallen

72%

Draw or FC ST. Gallen

71%

Winning margin

Yverdon Sport wins by 2+

11%

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Yverdon Sport 1+ goals

64%

Yverdon Sport 2+ goals

27%

Yverdon Sport 3+ goals

8%

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals

73%

FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals

37%

FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)

40%

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yverdon Sport at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

FC ST. Gallen away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yverdon Sport attack 0.83 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.78 + Yverdon Sport defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yverdon Sport scores more

29%

level

28%

FC ST. Gallen scores more

43%

FC ST. Gallen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Marchesano

Yverdon Sport · M

8.3

Match Events

22'

Marley Aké

28'

Varol Tasar

56'

B. Fazliji← Jordi Quintillà

56'

J. Nsame← B. Toma

59'

Jozo Stanić

62'

K. Faber← W. Geubbels

62'

A. Vallci← L. Daschner

64'

F. Sylla← V. Tasar

64'

Ronaldo Tavares← H. Komano

78'

B. Céspedes← M. Łęgowski

78'

A. Diaby← C. Witzig

85'

Hugo Vandermersch

90+3'

Antonio Marchesano

90+2'

A. Marchesano↳ B. Céspedes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YverdonFC

Overview

62%Possession38%

19Total Shots9

2.11Expected Goals (xG)0.48

2Corners3

12Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots9

7On Target3

9Off Target5

3Blocked1

9Inside Box5

10Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

477Total Passes298

362Accurate Passes189

76%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2