Yverdon Sport 0–0 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

Yverdon Sport

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

BSC Young Boys

4/1/2024

Super League · Round 29Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Yverdon Sport46%

×Draw25%

BSC Young Boys29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yverdon SportExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.17

Yverdon Sport

1.56

BSC Young Boys

1.17

Yverdon Sport creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.27

creates per match

1.15

1.18

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Yverdon Sport

1.27

BSC Young Boys

1.15

allows per match

Yverdon Sport

1.18

BSC Young Boys

1.86

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.60scores more than expected

finishing

Yverdon Sport-0.27scores less

BSC Young Boys+0.60scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yverdon Sport ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Yverdon Sport or draw

71%

Yverdon Sport or BSC Young Boys

75%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

54%

Winning margin

Yverdon Sport wins by 2+

24%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Yverdon Sport 1+ goals

79%

Yverdon Sport 2+ goals

46%

Yverdon Sport 3+ goals

21%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

69%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

33%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)

62%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yverdon Sport at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.18 · 6 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.86 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yverdon Sport attack 1.27 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.56

BSC Young Boys attack 1.15 + Yverdon Sport defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Yverdon Sport scores more

46%

level

25%

BSC Young Boys scores more

29%

Yverdon Sport at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Yverdon Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff