BSC Young Boys 6–1 Yverdon Sport: Result & Stats

BSC Young Boys

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Yverdon Sport

2/5/2025

Super League · Round 22Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

BSC Young Boys49%

×Draw24%

Yverdon Sport27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Young BoysExpected goals in this matchYverdon Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.18

BSC Young Boys

1.69

Yverdon Sport

1.18

BSC Young Boys creates 43% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.78

creates per match

1.23

1.13

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

BSC Young Boys

1.78

Yverdon Sport

1.23

allows per match

BSC Young Boys

1.13

Yverdon Sport

1.60

-0.49scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

BSC Young Boys-0.49scores less

Yverdon Sport-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

Yverdon Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw

73%

BSC Young Boys or Yverdon Sport

76%

Draw or Yverdon Sport

51%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

26%

Yverdon Sport wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

82%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

50%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

24%

Yverdon Sport 1+ goals

69%

Yverdon Sport 2+ goals

33%

Yverdon Sport 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

65%

Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 7 matches

Yverdon Sport away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.60 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 1.78 + Yverdon Sport defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

Yverdon Sport attack 1.23 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more

49%

level

24%

Yverdon Sport scores more

27%

BSC Young Boys at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff